Expecting Cooperation while indulging in Nationalism leads Modi nowhere.
By Maharshi Sanket
Promoting unwavering nationalism and building walls across borders might work well for domestic politics but risks the basics of staying in power.
No voter however polarised would be willing to sacrifice the basics of life. In the bid to increase the representation of one’s identity in elections, voters have increasingly turned towards political outfits that garland either community.
The current oxygen crisis that has brought both central and state governments into a situation where public anger about mismanagement has reached levels that threaten the very existence of the forts of vote banks that respective political parties have built is clearly visible. Take Kejriwal for instance. His act of desperation was clearly visible when he tried to live telecast the private meeting between the PM and the CM’s of multiple states.
Although taunted by the media and unsparing trolls of fellow Twitteratis, his act was well calculated and executed. It has brought him under the guilty tent with Modi in particular. Check-mate. BJP can do very little to tarnish his image because they themselves have their feet underwater. The little bits of social media storms and taunting is day to day business, nothing special.
A similar state of affairs is underway in international politics concerning India in particular. PM Modi has been trying his best to make mends to broken ties with countries like Bangladesh. He needs international cooperation to keep his fort. Either he has to check-mate his counterparts in crucial countries like the U.S or Pakistan or has to play the game of brotherhood to keep the basics of his fort intact. Trump was Modi’s most favourable US counterpart considering that both had a mutually beneficial relationship. They both won elections by promoting a specific vote bank and that required both to cooperate. With Biden the case is different. He won the election by other means which included promoting a vote bank but not limiting it to that. He very well understood the shifting winds and positioned his boat to take advantage of that. The rather indirect refusal to release vaccine raw materials to India seems in place considering that the bargaining power lies in Biden’s hands. It isn’t only the vaccine manufacturing power of India that has made Biden rethink his bargaining power with Modi but the political headwinds that he has tapped to his advantage.
Putin and Xi are the anchors of this game. They have been busy building strong forts respectively with little international interference. De-globalisation and wide-scale local digitisation post-pandemic are playing to their advantage. China’s GDP surges to a record 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021. Although Russia’s economy contracted by around 3.5%, the conservative nature plus stability remains and so does the political fort of Putin. This occurred due to Putin’s cautious efforts since 2014 to reduce Russia’s dependence on foreign countries for food and ensured that the Rouble’s value is less prone to changes in oil prices.
So what next in Modi policy? I don’t know. But I can list possibilities. The first is that Modi will increasingly turn towards Pakistan to make swings in domestic politics. Pakistan has little to offer and their leader Imran Khan uses similar snarls to keep his base intact. Although he has lately been running into trouble, largely his leased fort remains intact. Modi’s Bangladesh policy is public knowledge now. China is an anchor and his dealings with Xi aren’t like his dealings with Imran Khan or were like his dealings with Trump. It doesn’t offer much spice to the mix.
The second is that Modi will keep a cordial relationship with Russia and make Macron his next Trump. Although that wouldn’t carry the same appeal considering that France is part of the EU with whom Modi is already at odds with for his policy on Kashmir. The EU has less lustre when it comes to catering to the fuel in domestic politics sparing the bits of laughter it creates when fundamental Islamists in Bangladesh and Pakistan create havoc. The Middle East has more economic gains to offer than political gains. Japan and Israel remain important partners and Modi won’t risk them for politics. And either country has less to offer when it comes to domestic politics.
These possibilities don’t offer the bargaining seat which isn’t favourable when it comes to power. Any political leader of this stature needs to have his sails adjusted to global headwinds. It was well adjusted in 2014 but it no longer is. Modi needs to punch above his weight to sustain his fort if not there remains no fort.
Hence, Modi can’t have it both ways and his policy needs to change.
This was first published on the author’s blog – https://political-angles.blogspot.com